Genshin Impact, released in 2020 across multiple platforms including mobile, has achieved significant success. According to data from data.ai, the game has earned over $5 billion from players worldwide. However, the release of miHoYo’s Honkai: Star Rail last year saw a surge in its popularity, reaching 20 million downloads within two days. This surge in the new game’s success appeared to have caused a decline in the monthly revenue of Genshin Impact soon after.
With the release of Honkai: Star Rail, it raised the question of whether Genshin Impact players shifted their focus to the new game. In this analytical piece, mobile games analyst Andriy Zmeuly delves into a comparison of revenue and audience to determine what led to this decline.
In a TWIG podcast (Episode #245, if we are correct), the hosts discussed the decline in revenue in Genshin Impact. They linked this decline to a drop in audience, which may not be as noticeable as revenue dynamics but is still significant:
Upon closer inspection of the data, it became evident that the monthly audience for Genshin Impact experienced a 17% decrease starting from March, hitting an all-time low since the game’s launch.
The hosts suggested that the decline may be attributed to the launch of miHoYo’s new game, Honkai: Star Rail, drawing players away from Genshin Impact, prompting Andriy to develop a method to illustrate user flows and investigate further insights beyond a simple explanation.
Diving in
Before proceeding, several preconditions were established:
- The analysis focuses on the Google Play version of the game due to tracking limitations on iOS.
- The study includes US-only players to isolate local trends from international influences.
- The data is monthly aggregated, utilizing data.ai’s “Cross-Mobile Usage” to extrapolate to the total audience.
However, the risks of skewed data are acknowledged, so the findings are to be interpreted with caution if applied to different scenarios.
Cross-Usage
The data unveiled a trend of decreasing monthly active users (MAU) starting in March, a month prior to the release of Honkai, with subsequent months showing a similar decline.
Amidst the decline, it was noted that no significant launches of new games occurred, prompting further exploration into the connection between Genshin Impact and Honkai: Star Rail.
Honkai: Star Rail
Upon the game’s release, it was observed that a portion of Genshin’s players engaged with Honkai, with a surge to 20% of Genshin’s audience in May, followed by a gradual decrease over subsequent months. This raised questions on player retention and the impact of Honkai on Genshin Impact’s audience.
The analysis also highlighted the significant impact of pre-download marketing tactics on game engagement, with Honkai’s effectiveness rated at 18% in the Google Play Store.
Something new
As the investigation deepened, it was observed that players were not drawn to a single alternative game but dispersed among various titles. While there were some shared audiences with certain titles, the trend of audience dispersion across multiple games was unmistakable.
Conclusion
Ultimately, the study revealed several key points: a decline in Genshin Impact’s audience preceding the launch of Honkai; an analysis of cross-play data indicating only a 20% overlap in audience, and audience dispersal to numerous other games rather than a singular alternative to Genshin Impact. This raised questions about the development team’s focus before the release of Honkai and the challenges of retaining an audience amidst the launch of new projects.
In conclusion, the analysis provided valuable insights into user dynamics and highlighted the complexities of player engagement and retention in the gaming industry.
Edited by Paige Cook
