Apple has revised its estimated number of Vision Pro unit shipments for 2024, reducing it from 800,000 units to a range of 400-450,000 units.
These updated figures are based on insights from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who pointed out that demand has significantly decreased beyond initial projections just before the VR headset’s international release.
Although the spatial computing headset received mixed reviews upon its initial launch in early February, Apple is now proceeding with caution regarding demand as the Vision Pro enters more global markets.
Kuo’s earlier forecast suggests that Apple may introduce the Vision Pro in new regions before the June Worldwide Developers Conference, indicating broader availability within the next month or so.
Apple is currently reevaluating its head-mounted display (HMD) product roadmap, which may lead to the absence of a new Vision Pro model in 2025, contrary to previous expectations of a release in the latter half of the year. Additionally, the company anticipates a decline in Vision Pro shipments year-over-year in 2025. Kuo’s report from February emphasized Apple’s focus on production efficiency for the Vision Pro, with minimal user experience changes expected until 2027.
Is this the end for Apple’s spatial vision?
Reviews post-launch in February highlighted concerns about the comfort, weight, and lack of clear use cases for the Vision Pro. The high early-adopter price has also posed challenges, raising doubts about the potential for a second-generation model next year. The poor sales of the Vision Pro could impact the adoption of lens and microOLED technologies without significant sales volumes to support them, potentially hindering the development of a more affordable 2025 Apple Vision model.
App Concerns
An area of concern is the limited uptake of Apple Vision Pro apps in the App Store. While the process for porting existing iOS apps to Vision Pro is streamlined, the number of apps leveraging the platform’s eye-tracking features remains low. Appfigures data shows that out of 1,288 Apple Vision Pro apps available, only 523 are utilizing eye-tracking functionalities. The release of apps catering to these features has also decreased since launch week, raising questions about the platform’s app ecosystem.
This situation places Vision Pro and Apple in uncharted territory compared to previous device launches like the iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch, which saw a surge in popularity and app availability before international expansion.
Apple has not yet disclosed details regarding the release dates and pricing of Apple Vision Pro outside the US. The company could either opt for aggressive pricing strategies to boost sales or scale back its plans, potentially leaving its foray into spatial computing in a precarious position reminiscent of past products like the Newton. Given recent industry trends, unexpected outcomes cannot be ruled out.
In a separate development, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg expressed his views on Apple’s Vision Pro in an Instagram reel, highlighting the superiority of Quest 3 in comparison and underscoring its features.
